What Happens When We Mistake Confidence for Competence?
And why we need to get a grip on this—fast.
The Problem with How We Choose Leaders
I was recently introduced to the work of Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, whose research reveals that our systems often reward the signals of leadership—charisma, certainty, and boldness—rather than the substance of it.
In other words, we often equate confidence with competence, promoting people not for their ability to lead, but for their capacity to project self-assurance.
Because of this, we frequently select leaders based on the very traits that signal bad leadership.
The Consequences
🚩 We see the impact everywhere:
Up to 70% of employees worldwide report being disengaged at work—a direct reflection of leadership failure.
Teams are led by individuals who can command attention but not cultivate trust.
Organizations lose competent talent who don’t fit the performative mold.
Cultures are shaped by bravado, while the qualities that produce real, sustainable results go undervalued.
And this pattern extends far beyond the workplace. It shapes how we vote, who we invest in, and who we perceive as worthy of authority.
The Systems Lens
From a systems-thinking perspective, this is known as a self-reinforcing loop.
When we reward the wrong traits, we entrench ineffective leadership. The system perpetuates itself, blocking evolution toward the generative, collaborative, and adaptive forms of leadership we most need.
There’s also a gender dimension: men are more likely to be promoted on displays of confidence, while women and other underrepresented groups are often overlooked—even when they demonstrate equal or greater competence. This imbalance undermines both fairness and effectiveness.
What Effective Leadership Looks Like
🌱 Research is clear: effective leadership creates environments where people and ideas can thrive.
It fosters psychological safety, where innovation and honest dialogue are possible.
It inspires engagement so people feel valued—and performance and well-being rise together.
It builds resilience by working with uncertainty rather than pretending to have all the answers.
It amplifies collective intelligence, unlocking creativity and adaptive solutions.
Good leaders don’t perform leadership—they embody it. They listen, learn, empower others, and lead with clarity and humility.
The effects are profound: higher trust, stronger cultures, better outcomes, and more sustainable systems.
The Transformation Ahead
Promoting competence over confidence isn’t just a management fix. It’s a cultural transformation—one that requires each of us to take responsibility for what and whom we reward.
When we stop mistaking confidence for competence, we begin to build systems—and leaders—worthy of trust.
💡 The question is: do we have the courage to shift the system?
“There is a world of difference between the personality traits and behaviors it takes to be chosen as a leader—and the traits and skills you need to be able to lead.”
— Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic
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Julie Bauch is a deep transformational coach who supports individuals, leaders, groups, and organizations. Her work draws from neuroscience, wisdom traditions, somatic healing practices, Integral Coaching®, the work of Thomas Hübl, and a deep commitment to inner and outer coherence.
